India's bid for NSG Membership

When we all talk about India’s failure in getting Nuclear Supplier Group membership, This blog is to throw more light on what NSG is all about and its background.

What is NPT ?

Before understanding what NSG is all about, one must know about the Non-Proliferation Treaty. NPT as it most commonly known is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament.

This treaty came into effect in 1968. It recognized the countries that had nuclear weapons and that time as Nuclear Weapon States and other signatories as Non-Nuclear Weapon states. The treaty recognizes five states as nuclear-weapon states: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China (also the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council). This effectively means that the only those 5 countries are allowed to have nuclear weapons and no other country can have nuclear weapons. India, did its first test in 1974 -Smiling Buddha. And thus the only way for India to join this treaty would be if it promises to not be nuclear weapon state.

Why India did not sign NPT?

The reasons for India not signing the Non-proliferation Treaty are realistic. To better understand why India did not sign the NPT, what actually is there in NPT can shed the light and this explains India not signing NPT

1. According to NPT, only the Horizontal Proliferation is prohibited and not the vertical proliferation i.e. no new country except the p-5 (US, UK, Russia, China and France) can proliferate the nuclear weapons. And the trickiest part is that there is no limitation or clause to limit further proliferation by the p-5 nations. This means that p-5 can acquire as many weapons as they can but other nations shouldn't dare to procure any. This is a clear discrimination and a move to permanently geo-politicize nuclear weapons. 

2. The NPT calls for nuclear disarmament but There is not time bound plan of action for a complete nuclear disarmament. This means that in no near time frame the wish of nuclear weapon free world is going to be realized. More over the NPT has been extended indefinitely in 1995 which means neither the  p-5 nations nor the signatories are realizing the goal.

3. The membership from NPT can be withdrawn by any nation with a 3-month prior notice period. That is, a nation can avail all the benefits of the NPT like nuclear commerce, become itself self-sufficient in technology and withdraw from the NPT and continue with its nuclear programme. This is what exactly happened with North Korea in 2003. For a country like India which is committed to Complete Global Nuclear Disarmament this may be unpalatable and the very loophole of NPT.

4. India needs a minimum nuclear deterrent: If India signs the NPT as a Non-Nuclear Weapons State, India cannot even keep a minimal nuclear deterrent. In the light of the wars waged with neighbors China and Pakistan, this option seems suicidal; given China and Pakistan themselves have nuclear weapons. Therefore even popular political support, across the political spectrum, has been towards nuclear weapons program, rather than signing the NPT

5. According to NPT all the civilian nuclear establishments have to be brought under the surveillance of "International Atomic Energy Agency" (IAEA). But the IAEA has been questioned of its relevance after Iran has been caught in 2002 with its highly enriched uranium heavy water reactor at Arak.

Apart from the above reasons despite of NPT, and having the responsibility of protecting other nations from acquiring nuclear weapons, some of the p-5 countries especially USA and China have been soft towards certain states like Pakistan and even are accused of helping them procure the weapons. This is nothing but the fence feeding on the crop.

The above reasons beyond doubt explain the India's refusal to sign NPT. 

More over India has a self-imposed moratorium on any further Nuclear weapon tests and Transfer of nuclear technology and even officially committed to Nuclear Disarmament. So no specific necessity to sign NPT in separate

What is Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) ?

NSG is a group of nuclear supplier countries that seek to prevent nuclear proliferation by controlling the export of materials, equipment & technology that can be used to manufacture nuclear weapons. It was founded in response to the Indian nuclear test in May 1974 & first met in Nov 1975. It test demonstrated that certain non-weapons specific nuclear technology could be readily turned to weapons development. It has a total of 48 members now.

Why is India seeking to become a member of NSG ?

•India wants to become a player in this international arena where nuclear commerce norms are laid.

•If India becomes a member it will have better international market for export as well as for import of nuclear related materials.

•For building nuclear reactors, for providing energy we need nuclear materials .By becoming a member of NSG we can have better access of nuclear materials.

•All nuclear based programmes of India is being run on indigenous technology. By becoming a member of NSG we will have access to sophisticated foreign technologies.

•By becoming a member India can also sell its Indigenous technology thereby giving Make In India a facelift.

Argument in favour for India Joining NSG.

Background for Membership.

In 2008, the NSG exempted India from the requirement adopted by the NSG in 1992 banning nuclear cooperation with any state that had not accepted IAEA comprehensive safeguards. It allowed India to engage in nuclear trade with NSG members. ( But this exemption may be withdrawn anytime and thus India wants membership in NSG)

It got the exemption on the basis of certain nonproliferation commitments to which it agreed under the India-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement. They include:

• • Separating its civil and military nuke facilities in a phased manner.
  • Placing civil nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards.
  • Signing and adhering to the IAEA’s Additional Protocol.
  • Continuing its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing that no more nuclear tests will be conducted by India.
  • Working with the US for the conclusion of FMCT.
  • Refraining from the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology to states that do not have them & supporting international efforts to limit their spread.
  • Intro comprehensive export control legislation to secure nuclear material.
  • Adhering to the MTCR and NSG guidelines
  India deserves NSG membership due to following reasons:-
  India has established itself as a responsible nuclear state
  o   Declared a voluntary moratorium on further underground nuclear tests
  o   Effectively acted in sense and spirit of NPT/CTBT
  o   India has Nuke weapons only as a minimum deterrence & pledged NFU (No First Use) unless faced with an attack of weapons of mass destruction
  India’s nuclear doctrine is unique. It is non-offensive, non-proliferative and only for deterrence.
  India is prepared to accept full-scale IAEA safeguards.
  India has already acquired high-level expertise in the peaceful use of nuclear energy in industry, power, agriculture and health care.
  India’s membership shall not only benefit it but also encourage civil nuclear trade globally without compromising on world peace and harmony.
  
  

China Blocks India’s NSG bid

China picked the nitty-gritty of technicality that India is a non-NTP member, hence should not be allowed an entry in NSG. It said that no exceptions should be made for countries who are not signatories of the treaty. Brazil, Austria, New Zealand, Ireland, South Africa and Turkey too were against India’s bid, and backed China.

However, many believe that it wasn’t much about the technicality but rather geostrategic ambitions of China to remain a dominant force in Asia.  There are a string of practical reasons why China was against India NSG membership from the get go.China doesn’t want India to have access to all the latest Nuclear technology; technology, with which, India can stride significantly fast in its development agenda by emitting less carbon, depending less on fossils and advancing leaps in its research and technology sector.

Voting against the membership bid, China also thwarted India’s uranium supply. Also, as a NSG member, India could have strongly presented its case for a seat of United Nation Security Council (UNSC), which it can’t now.Beside all these, it’s not a secret that China has much stronger strategic ties with Pakistan, a country that unsurprisingly didn’t want India in this influential group. In a way, China was likely batting for Pakistan. If India would have granted any NSG exemptions, Pakistan too could have somewhat presented its case in front of the Nuclear Suppliers Group members. Pakistan as well was bidding for NSG membership, countering India’s efforts, fully aware that few countries would really buy its contention. In fact, Pakistan’s application was not discussed at all at the meeting. So, China did its part; blocked India’s entry and continued to play ‘good friend’ with Pakistan.

Why are New Zealand, Turkey, South Africa and Austria opposing India's entry to NSG ?

India and South Africa share a historical relationship. They also have common concerns relating to global governance reforms and sustainable development. India was also an ardent supporter of the South African ruling party, African National Congress (ANC), during its struggle against the apartheid regime. . Commercial relations have flourished with bilateral trade now standing at USD 15 billion; and India’s investments in the country was pegged at USD 6 billion in 2014. India and South Africa have joined hands for the formation of multilateral groupings such as the IBSA and IORA, and are also members of others such as BRICS and BASIC.

The change in the South African position may have something to do with the growing Chinese influence in the country. China’s relations with South Africa have deepened in recent years. The year 2014 was termed the “Year of South Africa in China”, while 2015 was marked as the “China Year in South Africa”. In December 2015, South Africa hosted the second Forum of China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit and the 6th ministerial conference at Johannesburg. Trade between the two countries is booming; the latest reports suggest that the value of two way trade is around USD 20 billion. Indeed, China has become South Africa’s largest trading partner. It seems that the ANC-led government is quite enamored with China. The 2015 ANC foreign policy discussion document applauds “the exemplary role of the collective leadership of the Communist Party of China” and hails China as “a guiding lodestar of our own struggle.”Such statements suggest that South Africa may be in the process of making a geopolitical pivot towards China.

The bilateral relations between China and Ireland have developed smoothly ever since the two countries signed the Communique on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations on 22 June 1979 and exchanged ambassadors in 1980. An estimated 6,000 Irish people live in China, including around 4,000 in Hong Kong. Bilateral trade between Ireland and China is worth over €8 billion each year.

China established formal diplomatic relations with Austria on May 28, 1971 starting from then The trade value of the two countries came to US$ 1.37 billion in 2002 and currently it is lot higher.

The international relationship between the People's Republic of China and New Zealand is growing stronger. The establishment of diplomatic relations between the two sovereign states was announced in December, 1972. Between 2009 and 2014, total goods trade between New Zealand and China doubled to NZ$20 billion. New Zealand goods exports to China grew 50% in June 2014. Later with NZ-China Free Trade Agreement this relation even became stronger. India’s relation with its neighbor Australia might also be a reason for New New Zealand’s stand regarding NSG bid. Apart from these New Zealand seem to be softening their position on India's NSG membership.

Turkey and Pakistan have always been maintained at a decent level and in a friendly manner since 1947 as both have common cultural heritage whose roots are ingrained in history. In the past, each society offered assistance to the other when it was in need of help. For instance, Indian Muslims in the area known today as Pakistan helped the Turkish people during the Turkish War of Independence that took place directly after WWI. Pakistan was one of the countries that offered the most assistance to Turkey after the 1999 Marmara Earthquake. Alternately, the Turkish people have also afforded the Pakistani people significant assistance after the disastrous earthquakes and floods that hit the country in the 2000′s. Apart from this both nations have good trade relations too.

How can India become NSG member now?

India has been engaging with the NSG since 2004. But it was only this May 12 did it made its application for the membership formally.

The good news is, despite China’s stubborn opposition, the NSG is likely to meet again at the end of this year to discuss the provisions of letting Non-NPT signatories to join this elite group. Meaning, India will have yet another chance to get the membership.

Regardless, if NSG is to meet at the end of this year, India must steer clear of the biggest obstacle- China. The concerns and issues of member countries opposing India’s entry- whether on technicality or other reasons- must be addressed diplomatically.